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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (精装)
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
| Category:
Improbable events, Non-fiction |
| Market price: ¥ 288.00
MSL price:
¥ 238.00
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| Stock:
Pre-order item, lead time 3-7 weeks upon payment [ COD term does not apply to pre-order items ] |
MSL rating:
 Good for Gifts |
| MSL Pointer Review:
It's a rare book that makes you look at the world differently - it enhances our awareness of our skewed way of viewing reality and the absurdities of fate and humanity. |
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AllReviews |
1 Total 1 pages 8 items |
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Fuller (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-25 00:00>
Not since Gregory Bateson has a writer elucidated that how we look at the world can cause focus on the wrong things and thus be drawn to irrelevant, incomplete or incorrect conclusions that carry consequences both large and small. For Bateson focus needed to be on 'relata' rather than things. For Taleb, it is studying extremes rather than central tendencies.
For me, both add immeasurably to the discussion as to how the world may actually work. Thank you Mr. Taleb for taking the time and trouble to engage us in explanation and exposition. |
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Hutton (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-25 00:00>
"The Black Swan" has a highly-developed and stunning imagery within its title. The symbolism of the expected white swan and the shock of the unexpected black swan is the summary of the book (which at 400 pages could have used an excellent editor to trim 50-75 pages). Mr. Taleb takes aim at those (especially in the financial markets) who predicts the likely outcome and how, we in society, rarely examine the unpredicted. He argues that knowing the future is unknowable. He has covered this topic before in his 2001 best-seller, "Fooled by Randomness." Overall an interesting book. |
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A reader (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-25 00:00>
This book is the best book on philosophy that I have read since Hume. Indeed, the book, like Hume's philosophical writings, is informal. Nevertheless its erudition is prodigious, as indeed is the intellect of its author. The book also contains a half-decent introduction to Levy statistics and similar processes. As I discovered, in physics, the uselessness of Gaussian random processes in the theory of spectroscopy forty years ago, it was a shock to realise that my pension fund is probably managed by people who regard Gaussian processes as an a priori given.
Nassim Taleb's book is amusing, or perhaps droll, as well as profound and erudite, and his stories of growing up in Lebanon into the beginning of the civil war there are fascinating.
A book not to be missed. |
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A reader (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-25 00:00>
I found "The Black Swan" by Nassim Taleb to be fascinating. One reason I was interested in reading the book is that something appearing to be analogous to "Black Swans" (i.e., rare and important events) may be found in turbulent flows and in the heterogeneity (extreme variability of certain physical properties) in natural sediments. Just as with Taleb's applications to economics and politics, scientists are attempting do describe the statistics of the variability using non-Gaussian, stochastic fractal, concepts. Some type of mathematical/physical chaos seems to underlie all these phenomena, which results in unpredictable behavior with a deterministic component. Taleb's book "The Black Swan" does a superior job of explaining and illustrating the basic ideas using economics and politics, topics with which many people are familiar. |
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A reader (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-25 00:00>
I really enjoyed this book. The author managed to hold my attention and even if the book's main points are quickly postulated I think that the abundant anecdotes help to really grasp the main message. So read it and learn from it.
Apart from that it is really funny to see how the author falls in some traps himself (which he admits, but some have found their way into the book). So I would like to start a little game and collect these "faultlines". My first throw: In one chapter NNT is approached by an Italian scholar who is convinced that Taleb has grown into an sceptical empiricist because he hails form the Levantine, which is supposed to be the ideal breeding ground for Talebs intellectual developement. NNT reports that he nearly fell for it but then begged to differ: Nationalities are no good to generally predict personal pecularities. But the funny thing: He keeps on bashing the French people in the book (at least a dozen times) and contradicts the aforesaid but also confirms how easily one can fall into hardwired traps. |
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Chi (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-25 00:00>
This is a must read book for anyone who is curious about understanding the world. Nassim Taleb writes in a way that's clear and entertaining, yet the implications of his ideas are profound. |
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Kathryn (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-25 00:00>
There was a time I felt I should have spent the time and money to get an MBA. This book assures me it was a good thing I didn't. In so many ways the author shows "The Emperor has no clothes". No matter how well you are armed with carefully constructed models, no matter how well you know your business history you have to be prepared for the appearance of "A Black Swan". |
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Donald (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-25 00:00>
Taleb is brilliant, funny and an intentional provocateur with this essay that will both annoy and challenge the conventional wisdom about, well, wisdom. I loved it and gained some significant insights where I'd had blind spots before. |
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1 Total 1 pages 8 items |
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