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The Only Three Questions That Count: Investing by Knowing What Others Don't (平装)
by Kenneth L. Fisher, Jennifer Chou, Lara Hoffmans
| Category:
Introduction to investing, Value investing, Investment guide, Personal finance |
| Market price: ¥ 298.00
MSL price:
¥ 278.00
[ Shop incentives ]
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| Stock:
Pre-order item, lead time 3-7 weeks upon payment [ COD term does not apply to pre-order items ] |
MSL rating:
 Good for Gifts |
| MSL Pointer Review:
Engaging, educating and filled with straightforward investing insights, this is a wonderful book with great financial and life lessons. |
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AllReviews |
1 2   | Total 2 pages 12 items |
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James J. Cramer (From the Foreword of the book), USA
<2007-11-26 00:00>
I believe that reading this book may be the single best thing you could do this year to make yourself a better investor. |
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Gregory E. Johnson, President and Chief Executive Officer Franklin Resources, Inc. , USA
<2007-11-26 00:00>
The Only Three Questions That Count is a great resource for investors. Ken pushes his readers to go against the grain and not accept conventional investing thinking. His questions are food for thought for anyone craving a fresh take on investing. |
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Steve Forbes, CEO of Forbes, Inc. and Editor in Chief of Forbes, USA
<2007-11-26 00:00>
Money manager maestro Ken Fisher has been profitably enlightening our readers with his columns for more than twenty years. Investors will find this brilliant book an eye-opening, capital-gains producing experience. |
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Norm Conley, TheStreet.com (MSL quote), USA
<2007-11-26 00:00>
This book is quite simply the single best tome on investing that I have read in years. |
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Steve Johnson, Financial Times (MSL quote), USA
<2007-11-26 00:00>
In an increasingly unquestioning world, Mr. Fisher has a refreshingly contrarian take on pretty much every subject you care to mention. |
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T. Faranda (MSL quote), USA
<2007-11-26 00:00>
Full disclosure: I am a financial advisor. And I've read Kenneth Fisher's column in Forbes since he started writing it 22 years ago.
This is a superb book. The sub-title is "Investing by Knowing What Others Don't" and it is the best book I've read on investing and asset managment in years.
The author is an investment manager based in California, who also writes a monthly column in Forbes magazine. He's a pretty successful guy, ranked 297 on the latest Forbes 400 Richest American's list. Yup. That's successful allright.
His father is Philip Fisher, also a pretty famous investment manager, who was known for recognizing good companies, and then buying and holding their stock - sometimes for decades. Lastly, Fisher has an interesting philanthropy - redwood trees. He has endowed the only university chair dedicated to a single species of tree.
On to the book. Here's the only negative: Fisher has a slightly cute sense of humor, which I found a little annoying at times.
But the pluses are huge.
The three questions are: (1) What do you believe that is actually false? (2) How can I fathom what others find unfathomable? And, (3) What the heck is my brain doing to blindside me now?
Each of the first three chapters is dedicated to explaining one of the three questions. The first chapter debunks many "facts" about markets that are actually wholly or partially incorrect myths. Here are two examples: High P/E markets are riskier than low P/E markets (P/E stands for price-earnings ratio and is one of the most fundamental valuation metrics for stocks) and a weak U.S. dollar is bad for stocks.
In the second chapter Fisher makes the point that the only way to beat the financial market is to know something the market doesn't know, or at least ignores. This is pretty basic. The market (prices of stocks, commodities, currencies, bonds, etc) has already discounted in the underlying pricing known knowledge; to outperform the averages, you have to know something not widely known.
The third chapter is how our mental processes frequently work against us in trying to sort through meaningful data and relationships. Fisher refers to the market as "The Great Humiliator" (TGH) where we are constantly at risk of allowing our emotions, like pride and regret, get in the way of rational decisions. For example "confirmation bias" where we seek evidence confirming our preset notions and reject contradictory evidence. And of course very applicable to other aspects of our life, besides our finances.
The remainder of the book - six chapters plus a short and interesting conclusion - expands on the three questions. The chapters have titles like "Capital Markets Technology", "Shocking but True", and the last chapter "Putting it all Together."
Much of the analysis is quite brilliant. For example I loved his examination of U.S. budget deficits, and why they are not negative for the financial markets - or for the country. COULD they be a negative - YES - but only if we do certain stupid things in managing our fiscal and monetary policies. He step by step builds a powerful case that, if anything, the United States is underleveraged - we could easily manage more debt. He gives several examples of debt-free developed countries with stagnant economies and lower standards of living.
I could go on and on. Get the book if you want a mind expanding read about managing your money (And your life! Much of what he says has applicability to all facets of life). Their are 42 pages of appendixes, including showing his audited records as a prognosticator in his Forbes column and the performance of his money management firm.
His record shows that Fisher doesn't just talk the talk; he has walked the walk. |
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Bobby Joseph (MSL quote), USA
<2007-11-26 00:00>
I am an individual investor who has read dozens of books on investing, the markets and economics. I have read Ken Fisher's columns in Forbes but I have never acted on his recommendations. Fisher has turned many Wall Street myths on its head. For examples: high PE ratios do not necessarily imply reduced stock returns; one should think about earnings yield rather than PE ratios and plot earnings yield against 10-year bond yields to decide on value; budget surpluses can actually dull stock returns; trade- account- and budget-deficits are all potentially good for the stock market; an inverted yield curve is not necessarily bad for the stock market; the global yield curve is important, etc. The 3rd section is about behavioral finance. A better take on behavioral finance is Beyond Greed and Fear by Shefrin. Fisher talks about the importance of international investing and he does not believe it really matters whether the dollar is strong or weak. He thinks that if you have 10 year time horizon, you should be 100% in equities. He has low regard for gold and commodities. He thinks high oil prices are not necessarily bad. His opinions are backed up with well researched data, with lots of graphs and statistics which is easily understandable even for a no-Math brain like me. I learned so much from this book.
I do have some criticisms. There is a lot of redundant material and some repetition. Editing could have been better. He criticizes Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway for underperforming the S&P in 2003, 2004, and 2005. But Buffett had a fantastic return over the long run. In the appendix of the book, between 1996 and 2006 Fisher's annualized return was 11.5% after fees. From 1995 and 2005 Buffett's average annual gain was more than 18% after taxes. (This does not include 2006 when Berkshire Hathaway had a blockbuster year gaining almost 25%!) Which is why I have 25% of my portfolio in this one stock, violating Ken Fisher's rule of not having more than 5% in one stock. |
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N. Conley (MSL quote), USA
<2007-11-26 00:00>
I am an investment professional and partner in a firm with over $700 million under management. As such, I'm a guy who thinks about investing a minimum of 12 hours a day, most days a year, and has done so for 13 years now. I read a lot about my profession, because I assume that I will never know everything, so my entire career will be driven by continual education, So I hope it is clear to you that I take investing very seriously.
Let me be very clear when I tell you that this book is really a masterpiece. It belongs in a very, very elite category of investment tomes. The "knock" on Fisher is typically wrapped around his firm's aggressive marketing techniques. These techniques irritate some of people, particularly his fellow professionals. Not me. I just see Ken's asset-gathering techniques as more evidence of this successful ability to "think different," and I suspect that some people in the industry are more than a bit jealous of Ken's enormous success in the last few decades.
Anyway, buy the book. Read it once, then read it again. Read it if you are a beginner or a seasoned pro. You're going to learn some cool facts, and you're going to see some common investing myths "busted." This alone is worth the price of the book. But most importantly, you're going to learn how to think for yourself, which is very valuable indeed. In fact it's priceless. |
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A reader (MSL quote), USA
<2007-11-26 00:00>
In the Preface to The Only Three Questions That Count, Ken Fisher asks, "Who am I to tell you anything, much less anything that counts?" So, who am I to write a review? Well, for starters, I've actually read the book. And that must count for something!
In this book, Ken Fisher brilliantly debunks common beliefs held by most of today's investors and blazes a new path for investment success based on his own time-tested strategies, "out of the box" thinking, and continual self-examination. There aren't many investment books out there that can have you laughing and scratching your head at the same time, but this book manages to do just that. My favorite subchapter: "Anything the French Can Do We Can Do Better."
For a student of the market such as me, the countless charts and graphs throughout the book and the 40 pages of market data found in the Appendix (going back to 1830!) are worth the price of the book alone. But it's about much more than numbers and charts, it's about approaching the markets as a science, not as a craft, as most investors now do. This will be an uncomfortable leap for many readers because Ken Fisher asks you to put all of your previously held beliefs about the markets aside and to essentially start anew. And that starts and ends with the three questions.
So, what are the three questions that count? 1) What do you believe that is actually false? 2) What can you fathom that others fund unfathomable? 3) What the heck is my brain doing to blindside me?
For starters, he argues (and I would argue proves) that P/E ratios tell you nothing about risk, higher oil prices are good for stocks, and gasp, America actually doesn't have enough debt! How did he come to these conclusions? As he explains, by flipping things around, back testing ideas with historical market data, and making sure that anything found by looking at US markets can also be found in foreign markets. Example: The P/E ratio tells you nothing about market risks and opportunities, but the E/P (or earnings yield) of the market compared to global bond yields tells you a lot.
At the end of the book, Ken Fisher urges any reader who can debunk one of his own beliefs by using a scientific, yet simple spreadsheet analysis (he actually explains in the book) to write him and share their findings. He is humble enough to admit that the book is much bigger than him. It's about using real science to debunk any market belief that is not rooted in truth, perhaps even one of his own. And for a man who manages more than $30 billion and doesn't seem to need our help, I simply find that unfathomable! |
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Richard Stoyeck (MSL quote), USA
<2007-11-26 00:00>
Who's the best investor of the 20th century? Most would say Warren Buffett. Upon close review, it's possible that Ken Fisher's father, Philip Fisher might be the man more deserving of that title, or maybe Benjamin Graham. Buffett looks upon both men as his mentors. After reading this book it became obvious that Ken Fisher is very clearly his father's son.
If you are a reader of investment books, you probably realize that most of them don't have all that much to say, and very few give you concepts that are truly ACTIONABLE. I have found, and maybe you have too, that only a handful of books out of every 100 are truly special. As regarding investments, "The Only Three Questions That Count" makes the list.
This book is like anything else in life. You immediately know when something is fabulous, whether it's a book, a vacation, a new acquaintance, or a life experience. You just know when the real thing has turned up. I always ask myself some questions about books as soon as I get to the first page.
Is the author scattered? Is the book organized in a fashion conducive to learning? Is the author wrapped up so tight in his own mask of brilliance that he can't make himself understood? These are the questions I naturally gravitate towards when going through a book, and I do about a book a day. The author has one overall premise that is pervasive to understanding this book. "INVESTING BY KNOWING WHAT OTHERS DON'T". Here's why you need to read this book:
HE RUNS HIS OWN MONEY MANAGEMENT FIRM
This has allowed Fisher to amass a fortune putting him on the Forbes 400 List. This means very simply that the man is the REAL THING. Every day he is in the trenches being measured by one criterion. How has he performed against the ENTIRE world of Professional Money Managers, and in Fisher's case, he has consistently won throughout his long career. He's writing about what he knows, knows so intensely that he is acknowledged to be one of the best in the world at it.
HE CONTENDS THAT IT IS OUR BELIEF SYSTEMS THAT DISALLOW US FROM MAKING BIG MONEY IN THE MARKET
Fisher is the only person I have read, and I have read all of them, who gets down into the very basic concept of what is our core beliefs as human beings, and how have these core beliefs held us back from distilling the truth about how to make money in the market. He's dead on accurate. He attempts to answer 3 vital questions in the book.
Question 1) WHAT DO I BELIEVE THAT IS ACTUALLY FALSE?
This is the first KEY question that Fisher believes we must all ask ourselves as it regards the market. We must challenge ourselves to be absolutely brutally honest. Fisher believes that such an absolutely core belief that is false, will be a belief shared by the vast majority of other investors. If you want additional information on this concept, study Carl Jung the early 20th century psychoanalyst, and his concept of the SHADOW.
Question 2) WHAT CAN I FANTHOM THAT OTHERS FIND UNFATHOMABLE?
This has to do with out-of-the-box thinking, to use Fisher's term. Make sure your poker-playing buddies aren't around when you indulge in this type of thinking. You will get sucked right back into your daily habitual ways of thinking about things.
If you really want to go deep into this way of thinking, study the history of Einstein's refusal to accept the veracity of Quantum Theory. You will be absorbed and fascinated by it. If you want to go deeper, read Thomas Kuhn's "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions" which will change everything you have ever believed about the history of science, and show you out-of-the-box thinking at its best.
Question 3) HOW CAN I OUT-THINK MY BRAIN, WHICH NORMALLY DOESN'T LET ME THINK TOO WELL ABOUT MARKETS?
In essence Fisher is telling us that the problem with our stock market performance is NOT in the stocks, it is WITHIN us, in our souls, in our minds, in our internal programming. Thirty years ago, John Train said basically the same thing in a book called the "Money Masters". You can a used copy of the book. Train had interviewed the greatest investment minds of that time including Buffett, Templeton, and Ken Fisher's father Philip Fisher.
It seems that Fisher believes that we have to delve into our brain, and come to a true understanding of our real selves, in order to enter the world of investments, and make wise choices. You can see this kind of thinking play out right before your eyes when Buffett talks. There is clarity of self in his thinking that I have never seen in another human being.
These three questions become the subject of Chapter 1, 2, and 3, in Fisher's book. These questions are overall subsets of Fisher's main concept, which is again, "INVESTING BY KNOWING WHAT OTHERS DON'T. The author then spends the next several hundred pages taking you through various concepts, examples, histories, and whatever he believes is necessary for you to transform yourself into the type of investor that he is.
If there is a leap of faith here, it is that he believes as human beings we can overcome whatever it is that is holding YOU and ME back from being all that we can be as investors. If you have an OPEN MIND, and are willing to give this author an opportunity to help you be different from the crowd, he just may be right. Good luck to you, and I hope that you have found this review helpful.
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