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The Chinese Century: The Rising Chinese Economy and Its Impact on the Global Economy, the Balance of Power, and Your Job (精装)
by Oded Shenkar
| Category:
Chinese economy, Global economy, China & Asia business |
| Market price: ¥ 278.00
MSL price:
¥ 258.00
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| Stock:
Pre-order item, lead time 3-7 weeks upon payment [ COD term does not apply to pre-order items ] |
MSL rating:
 Good for Gifts |
| MSL Pointer Review:
A very timely and informative book that pictures Chinese economy and its impact on the rest of the world from a very balanced lens. |
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AllReviews |
1 Total 1 pages 10 items |
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Charles (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-15 00:00>
Since I regularly read journals dealing with international business and manufacturing, I am aware of the trends. However, until I read this book, I had no idea how dramatic the rise in the economic power of the People's Republic of China has been. From the figures in this book, it is clear that the phrase, "The cold war is over and the Chinese have won" is true. Current projections are that in less than two decades, the economy of the P. R. C. will surpass that of the United States. If the economic activity of the Chinese mercantile class living in other Asian nations is factored in, then the timeframe is even shorter.
In area after area, from clothing to toys to furniture, manufacturing is shifting to China. Even the traditional low cost countries such as Mexico, Haiti and Honduras are losing manufacturing jobs to China. The figures on the number of Mexican jobs that have been exported to China are amazing and disturbing. Many of the employment gains that Mexico expected to have due to the NAFTA accords have been lost to China. American jobs being lost to China is not surprising, but the movement of jobs throughout the entire Western Hemisphere indicates a global transfer of economic power.
This rise in economic power will lead to a corresponding increase in political and economic power. Many of those trends are also described, including some of the early responses by those who study U. S. national security. I was also impressed with the prescience of the Chinese leadership in their dealings with leaders in the United States. By adopting a policy of divide and conquer, they have been able to stave off attempts to restrict their activity. Since any attempt by the U. S. government to slow the expansion of P. R. C. involvement in one area will reduce the market opportunities of another group, every attempt to do so is quickly squashed. There is no better example than that on page 173, "With such strong internal support, it is no wonder that China can afford to spend less than desolate Malawi on paid U. S. lobbyists."
Here are some sample statistics. On page 111, "According to ATMI, the U. S. market share of brassieres made in Mexico is projected to fall from 47 percent in 2001 to 6 percent in 2004; China's share is expected to rise from 5 to 67 percent." On page 106, "Between 1996 and 2002, U. S. imports of Chinese household furniture rose more than six fold from $741 million to $4.8 billion." Later in the page, a comparison was made between the prices of a bedroom set made in the U. S. ($22,755) to a comparable one made in China ($7,070).
In the 1980's Japan was considered the great economic threat arising in Asia. That turned out to be false, Japan has been economically stagnant for years. Some people argue that the situation with China will turn out to be similar. However, there are many reasons to believe that this is a false premise. China possesses more people, resources and is much more adept at managing their relationship with the American community. I strongly recommend this book if you are interested in being carried by the wave instead of being buried by it. |
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John (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-15 00:00>
The main thought I kept having as I went through this book was that I'd like to go spend a few hours talking with Dr. Shenkar, perhaps over a couple of beers.
He presents here what I would consider to be the 'linear projection view' of what might happen in China. That is, he seems to think that the current trends in China, modified somewhat by Japanese history after the war, will continue through the next century. That is, he forecasts that China will be able to capitalize on cheap labor, millions of high-skilled professionals, and a friendly business environment to become a major if not dominant economic superpower during the next century. It's hard to argue with the points he makes for the near future. But to forecast that this will continue for a century is a pretty big step. A century is a long time.
Some points I'd like to discuss with Dr. Shenkar:
China's political future. China had a revolution in 1911 with Sun Yat-sen. Another revolution in the 1940's. They now have an authoritarian government that under the current leadership is open to foreigners and foreign trade. But this leadership is getting along in years. Who is to say that another leader couldn't emerge that would take us back to xenophobic days or even another 'Cultural revolution.' Who is to say that there won't be another armed revolution to throw over the current government and replace it with a military dictatorship or whatever.
Muslim influence (really difficulties) seems to be growing in China as it is in the rest of the world. Xinjiang province has some 23,000 mosques. The religious aspects of the Muslims is in direct contrast to that of the Communist government. Will the current state continue for a century? Considering the changes over the last century, I wonder.
Oil isn't mentioned in the book. China's exports to the United States are dependent on the low cost of transportation. A standard ocean shipping container costs about $3,000 to ship from China to the United States. Nearly every forecast says that by mid-century oil will be in very short supply. Suppose the cost of shipping a container is $30,000 or $50,000. How far does this go to offset the cost in US manufacture? Automobile manufacturing is mentioned a lot in the book. Apparently the Chinese government wants to move into manufacturing automobiles for export to the US. What happens to the automobile market when gasoline is $30 or $50 or more per gallon. This is the kind of problem that a centralized government can't handle well.
In short I find this book most interesting, well thought out, well written and almost mandatory reading for anyone thinking about business in the next century. But the conclusions he reaches are not necessarily the ones on which I'd bet the family farm. |
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Cindy (MSL quote), China
<2007-06-15 00:00>
As a native Chinese who was born, grew up and educated in China, I was skeptical first about a book written by a westerner on China. I have to admit I've found The Chinese Century to be a fascinating book both in terms of reading experience and knowledge literature and information. It is such a great read, I couldn't put it down!
The amount of useful information about China is mind blowing! I would recommend to all interested in exploring business opportunities in China or learning more about China and Chinese people. It's eye-opening, knowledgeable, insightful and helpful! Don't miss it. |
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Julia (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-15 00:00>
I think the author brings up some very interesting observations about current business environment in China, although I'm not sure what the end result is to the reader. Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed this book immensely and will recommend it highly. Develops very helpful frameworks for doing business in China but the books fail to come with the simple action plan that reader like me could use. I've noticed several reviewers seem to be wondering what, in essence, this book means for them, and to this I will say that it's great, thought provoking insights about future of the world economy and the Chinese role in it. |
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Mark (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-15 00:00>
Oded Shenkar's book is a fascinating read with a powerful message: The Chinese Century is coming and there's not much we can do about it.
China is developing at a remarkable pace. They add 4 to 6 million cell phone subscribers every month - over a year they would be adding as many as the entire cell phone market of United Kingdom! The Chinese are building municipal infrastructure every month that is the equivalent of a Houston, Texas. China attracts the biggest foreign direct investment (FDI) in the world and is buying 7% of the world's oil! In facts most of the Fortune 500 CEOs seemed more optimistic about the Chinese economy than the American economy.
This book is a conversation-starter. It's a conversation about the future of the global economy and your role there. Everybody who concerned about America's place in the 21st century must read this book, because 21st century might well be known as the Chinese Century... |
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A reader (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-15 00:00>
This is one of the best written book on China and I am sure it will be a best seller. I bought the book last week after reading another Wharton School Publishing book - Making Innovation Work. I quickly breezed through the 200+ pages. It is a quick and easy read. It is overflowing with information such as population statistics, economics, impact of China on domestic finances, industry, prices, job losses, trade policy, and much, much, more. The author presents many stories based on interviews both in China and elsewhere. It is a wonderfully prepared, researched and well written book that covers modern economic developments in China.
Modern China isn't simply about loading up the world with cheap goods. It is moving on the very highest ends of technology as well. From complex industrial machinery and software to the exploration of Space (and a promised mission to the Moon), China is reaching to become dominant in every aspect of the world economy. We simply must take this book seriously. |
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A reader (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-15 00:00>
Sometime in the next 20 years China will surpass the United States as the world's largest economy; and, according to Professor Oded Shenkar, the 21st century will be the Chinese century. Just as America's emergence as the preeminent economic power in the early 20th century China's ascent will have equally far-reaching consequences for businesses, employees, and consumers.
Although there are many similarities between the rise of China and the US, there are also many differences. America was a new nation and a democracy that became a beacon of freedom and free markets. China, on the other hand, does have a relatively free market, but it's political system is anything but free and democratic. Not many of the pundits would have thought that a relatively free market coupled with a political dictatorship could have an economy that grows at a rate of 9% annually. Prior to Deng Xiao Ping's reform movement of 1978, China was isolationist and xenophobic, due to two centuries of colonial domination. China did have the world's largest economy from around 1000 to 1700: this period was known as the Imperial Era. Shenkar believes it is important to understand that China's current ascent to becoming the world's largest economy is seen by the Chinese as their rightful claim to a position they held previously for 700 years.
The rise of China is also unlike that of Japan and South Korea. One reason is size: China has a population of 1.3 billion. It has been an investment magnet for foreign firms for the past 25 years. Today China has replaced the US as the largest recipient of foreign investment in the world. It's astonishing to some that foreign firms invest in China, given the level of piracy that takes place. Yet companies like Microsoft and GM will continue to do business in China inspite of the fact that software and car designs will continue to be stolen. China will be the largest market and it is imperative for global companies to be there.
The lure of the domestic market is a tremendous bargaining chip for China that was unavailable to Japan and South Korea. It gives China the clout to demand technology transfers, or at least have foreign firms set up research and development centers where technology and designs can be easily pirated. Authorities occasionally nab a counterfeiter or a bootlegger to appease the WTO, but on the whole they look the other way because they are saving on development costs. How many Microsoft Office Suites were actually purchased? One in a thousand?
China's ascent differs from that of Japan and South Korea in another respect. As it moves up the technological ladder to higher-value-added production, it will not shed the labor-intensive jobs. China needs 15 million new jobs a year just to keep pace with population growth and unemployment. The current factory worker makes less than a dollar an hour, and with an endless supply of workers, wages will not increase very rapidly. As a consequence, any global corporation that does not set up shop in China will have a difficult time surviving. China also graduates more scientists and engineers that the US, or any other country, making high tech industries vulnerable as well.
This is not to say that China is not facing so serious problems. Modernizing an economy of 1.3 billion people requires tremendous amounts of energy and natural resources. Anyone who follows the commodities markets knows the effect that China has on the price of oil, lumber, iron ore and other natural resources. This huge economic engine is consuming such large amounts of material that it has some of the most polluted cities in the world, and some of the worst environmental degradation on the planet. Limited resources and increasing pollution will inevitably slow there current rate of growth.
Nevertheless, Shenkar believes that the Chinese economy will soon reach a point where there will be some geo-political realignment that will have an impact as significant as America's at the beginning of the 20th century. The rise of a new superpower will create challenges and it will create opportunities. Any scenario that one may have of the future it will, no doubt, include a newly powerful China. This book is highly recommeded. |
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Orly (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-15 00:00>
As an international business scholar and consultant, I was impressed with how this book conveys the realities of the China impact in a readable and straightforward manner. Business in a world where China is a major player will be fundamentally different from what we have been accustomed for, and this book gives you a compass of sort with which to understand the unfolding events and, more importantly, know how to react to them. If you have time to read only one of the many books on China you can find in the store today, this is the one you want to buy. |
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A reader (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-15 00:00>
The Chinese Century clearly outlines the largest economic movement to occur in our and our childrens lifetime. The book clearly explains how and why the growth in China is different than other burgeoning economies and how it will structurally change the entire economic base of the industrialized world. It does not address micro-level issues but instead focuses upon macro trends, the impact to the US and the dynamics of globalization. All the major retailers, banks and marketers are tapping into the China explosion and Professor Shenkar addresses the potential consequences - both good and bad. This book concisely outlines the complex dynamics of what is happening in China and how it will affect the world (particularly the US) in an interesting quick read. |
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Maris (MSL quote), USA
<2007-06-15 00:00>
I really liked this book. Read the whole thing at a bookstore. I think it is both provocative and thought provoking. Chapter after chapter I had a new insight. Shenkar is a wonderful researcher and communicator. I have worked extensively in India, rather than China, but most of the author's experiences and lessons are just as applicable to India or any other emerging market. The notes at the end of the book are also of great interest. |
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1 Total 1 pages 10 items |
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