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Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change (精装)
by Clayton M. Christensen, Stott D. Anthony, Erik A. Roth
| Category:
Innovation, Corporate strategy, Business |
| Market price: ¥ 318.00
MSL price:
¥ 288.00
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| Stock:
Pre-order item, lead time 3-7 weeks upon payment [ COD term does not apply to pre-order items ] |
MSL rating:
 Good for Gifts |
| MSL Pointer Review:
An eye-opening read to help companies to stay ahead of competition through adaptation and strategic choices. |
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AllReviews |
1 Total 1 pages 6 items |
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Inc. magazine (MSL quote), USA
<2006-12-28 00:00>
Just as kids await the latest Harry Potter installment, so do business leaders look for Clayton M. Christensen's next offering. |
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Robert Morris (MSL quote), USA
<2006-12-28 00:00>
Opinions are divided as to whether or not it is possible to "predict industry change" but it is certainly possible to maintain a system by which to rigorously monitor developments in relevant industries, measure the nature and extent of probabilities, and then formulate appropriate contingency plans in anticipation of them. (FYI, Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World and Kees van der Heijden in Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation also have much of substantial value to say about that process.) Together with Erik A. Roth and Scott D. Anthony, Clayton M. Christensen offers in this volume further development of core concepts previously discussed in The Innovator's Dilemma and The Innovator's Solution. However, there is a substantial amount of new thinking and an abundance of new material. Although I strongly recommend that the two earlier works be read first, that is not a requirement to derive full benefit from Seeing What's Next.
According to Christensen, "While the two previous books were aimed at managers [in italics] inside firms who wanted to defend again or attack with a disruption, Seeing What's Next is written for those who watch industries from the [in italics] outside, and who must make important decisions based on what they see. It will help executives, analysts, investors, and others who have a stake in a specific industry to evaluate the impact of innovations, the outcomes of competitive battles, and the moves made by individual firms - and to make smarter business decisions, forecasts, and stock recommendations based on those evaluations. The goal here [in Seeing What's Next] is to dramatically increase the odds of getting things right in the arena where wrong decisions could be devastating."
The authors carefully organize their material as follows:
In Part I, "How to Use Theory to Analyze," they identify the "signals of change" which indicate where the best opportunities are; explain how to size up competitors; how to identify which strategic choices are of greatest importance; and then explain how nonmarket factors influence innovation.
Then in Part II, "Illustrations of Theory-Based Analysis," they apply various TBA tools when examining the future of education, aviation, semiconductors, healthcare, and telecommunications; using the same tools, they also assess strategies for both corporations and countries. Then in the "Conclusions" section, they step back and recap where they have taken their reader, suggest areas for further investigation, and provide some final thoughts. I especially appreciate the Appendix in which the authors provide a summary of the book's key concepts.
All of the most important points made in this book help us to understand both the opportunities and (yes) the perils of disruptive innovation. They include: disruption is a process, NOT an event; disruption is a relative phenomenon in that what is disruptive to one company may be sustaining to another; different, even radical technology does NOT equal disruptive; disruptive innovations are NOT limited to high-tech markets. Re this last point, the authors carefully explain that disruption can occur in any product or service market and can even help to explain competition among national economies. (Please see Chapter Chapter 9, pages 207-223). Another substantial value-added benefit of this book is derived from the generously annotated "Notes" at the end of each chapter. Together, these sections (all by themselves) are worth far more the cost of this book.
Thus, in a single volume, the authors guide and inform decision-makers in all manner of organizations as they embark on the three-part process by which to (1) identify signals of change, (2) evaluate competitive, head-to-head battles between companies loosely classified as "attackers" and "incumbents" (please see the Glossary), (3) formulate appropriate strategic choices that can influence the outcome of competitive battles, and (4) meanwhile establish and then sustain an effective relationship between innovation and nonmarket forces such as government regulation. Christensen, Anthony, and Roth are to be congratulated for what I consider to be a brilliant achievement. Reluctant as I am to predict anything, I feel certain that Seeing What's Next will become a business book "classic." |
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Bill Godfrey (MSL quote), USA
<2006-12-28 00:00>
This is the third book in a series on innovation, with Christensen as the lead author. The three books develop theories around the concepts of disruptive and sustaining innovation, and how to apply strategies based on these concepts and an understanding of the markets into which innovations are directed.
The first book, The Innovator's Dilemma, explains why established companies can often be successfully attacked by innovators introducing disruptive products, while The Innovator's Solution develops an approach to launching disruptions. Seeing What's Next changes focus somewhat to propose that the theories developed in the first two books can be used to analyse and predict industry change. In doing so, it also provides a useful summary of the theories put forward in the previous books and their application.
The analysis is undertaken essentially in the context of Porter's 'five forces' (competitors, potential entrants, buyers, substitutes and suppliers) but with the added dimensions of the nature of the innovation (disruptive or 'sustaining' - i.e. something that creates new markets or reshapes existing ones, or something that develops further on existing offerings) and the range of customers from 'overshot' (offered more than they really want) to 'undershot' (looking for more than they are offered) in terms of product characteristics.
It is a useful way of looking at markets - one that will keep analysts very occupied in collecting data and pondering alternative conclusions and strategies. The associated risk is that it appears to invite 'paralysis by analysis'.
While the coverage of the book extends to other industries, including airlines, education and the health industry, the methodology is built primarily around various elements of the telecommunications and computer industries. I suspect that choice of the fashion or food industries would have led to a different perspective on the same questions - one in which the ideas put forward by Gladwell in The Tipping Point might provide more useful clues to competitive challenges to established companies.
How reliable the authors' methodology is in actually predicting the future in a specific case is, of course, open to question, and it is not a question that the authors put to the test. Rather, they claim that the analytical process proposed will put both a potential attacker and a potential defendant into a better position to achieve their goals.
The three underlying theories round which the analysis in the book is built are:
- the disruptive innovation theory (briefly described above)
- the resources, processes and values (RPV) theory, and
- the value chain evolution theory (VCE).
The RPV theory argues that resources, processes and values define an incumbent's strengths, but also its weaknesses and blind spots - it is not easy to operate outside a well established arena.
The VCE theory argues that integration gives greater control over interdependent factors but reduces flexibility. The theory provides a tool for judging whether the right decisions about what should and should not be integrated have been made in particular circumstances.
Part 1 of the book elaborates on these theories and their application, while Part 2 essentially consists of extended case studies of five industries (education, aviation, semiconductors, health care, telecommunications) and an examination of innovation overseas. Of these industries, I am most familiar with health care and, while I found the analysis interesting, it did not seem to me to come to grips with the central dynamics of the challenge of health care into the future. |
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Gerry Stern (MSL quote), USA
<2006-12-28 00:00>
The theme is "(u)sing theory allows us to see the future more clearly and act more confidently to shape our destiny." Using case studies, the authors outline a model, diagnostics and tools to allow decision makers to spot industry-changing firms or business models, forecast winners and losers, and assess the merits and implications of specific strategic choices. The book's foundation is built on the premise that "the best way to make accurate sense of the present, and the best way to look into the future, is through the lens of theory. Good theory provides a robust way to understand important developments, even when data is limited. And theory is even more important when there is an abundance of data. ... Theory helps to block out the noise and to amplify the signal." This book reveals how to use theory to see the future. The authors' aim is to teach readers how to use the theories of innovation to predict industry change. The central elements of the authors' approach are: tracking the signals of change; sizing up competitors; and identifying which choices matter. It's hard to do justice to book so abounding in ideas and insights. The bottom line is, this is a great book for anyone who must strategically plan for any organization. Read this book next to start seeing what's next. |
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Michael Erlocker (MSL quote), USA
<2006-12-28 00:00>
In Seeing What's Next, Christensen chastises Wall Street analysts for their inability to see beyond current trends. - I lived in that world for 10 years and he's right.
Extrapolating future scenarios from current trends is a dangerous business and it seldom works for investors. And it fails miserably as a method for businesses to find the next big thing, which a lot managers try to do. A new framework for analyzing identifying tech trends is needed and Christensen's theories on disruptive innovation are a great starting point, and an inspired way to think about innovation.
The book offers a framework for understanding and anticipating trends. This includes a recap of the theory of disruption and has a few chapters that serve as casebook examinations of industries facing disruption, including the telecom sector, higher education and aviation.
While not as strong a book as his earlier work, The Innovator's Solution or the first breakthrough on disruption, The Innovator's Dilemma, Seeing What's Next is a more practical guide for managers. The reason: Christensen, a Harvard professor, allows his theory to evolve from his management consulting activities. |
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Don Mitchell (MSL quote), USA
<2006-12-28 00:00>
Seldom do I remember a book that totally replaces the old and popular business literature quite as effectively as Seeing What's Next does in superceding The Innovator's Dilemma and The Innovator's Solution. If you have not read either of those books, you can skip them now and read Seeing What's Next instead. If you have already read those books, you will be delighted to see how much more practical the advice is in Seeing What's Next than in the earlier two efforts.
Before going into the details of what the book covers, I want to especially compliment Professor Christensen for overcoming in Seeing What's Next two of the three most serious weaknesses of The Innovator's Solution - the lack of discussing business model innovation and the omission of leading technology business model innovation examples.
In Seeing What's Next, the authors take on the challenge of helping executives and managers consider the likelihood of disruptive technology changes occurring and how they should evaluate their potential responses in light of current information. The analysis looks at both the perspective of the companies that will be disrupted and displaced as well as those who are leading the disruptions.
The book is a remarkable combination of theory, process suggestions and detailed case histories to explain the suggested process. As a result, this book will be the most practical guide available for technology executives until Professor Christensen brings out the next installment of his thinking in a future book.
In Part I, the authors use existing theories about disruptive innovations to suggest which signals to pay attention to as suggesting that opportunities exist, how to determine if competitors will be a factor in disruption, choosing an appropriate response and considering how government and other nonmarket influences can affect the result.
In Part II, the process of applying the Part I theories are exemplified in higher education, commercial aviation, semiconductor customer benefits, health care productivity, non-U.S.-based innovations and strategies, and the telecommunications industry.
The book also contains a stimulating conclusion and helpful summary of key concepts in the appendix.
As usual, Professor Christensen and his colleagues have provided many interesting and valuable footnotes. I usually found them to be as interesting as or more interesting than the text.
Having said so many nice things, you are probably wondering what the book's weaknesses are. I found a few that are worth considering before you start reading the book… which everyone should do.
1. The proposed analysis of signals and competitors is extremely elementary. It reminded me of the state-of-the-art in strategic thinking in 1971 when I first started as a strategy consultant at The Boston Consulting Group. Today, much better sources of information and means of analysis are available. I was surprised to see such primitive suggestions to such important questions.
2. In the competitive analysis, the book assumes rational competitors who understand where they are. In my experience, innovative situations have everyone confused and they mill about aimlessly… often acting against their own rational best interest.
3. The authors take the rationalist view that the future can be predicted well enough in one direction that you can plan and act based on that. Most experienced business people would not agree with that assessment. The opposing view is that you should develop scenarios of what might happen along a number of different extreme lines, and then look for directions that leave you better off regardless of which scenario occurs…
How good is this book? Many people tell me that Good to Great is the most helpful business book they have ever read. I found Seeing What's Next to be a vastly better and more useful book. Try it.
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1 Total 1 pages 6 items |
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