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The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World (Paperback)
by Peter Schwartz
| Category:
Strategic planning, Planning, Sustainable growth, Business |
| Market price: ¥ 208.00
MSL price:
¥ 178.00
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| Stock:
Pre-order item, lead time 3-7 weeks upon payment [ COD term does not apply to pre-order items ] |
MSL rating:
 Good for Gifts |
| MSL Pointer Review:
Could be the best book on strategic planning. Under- standing alternative futures is a core behavior for leading change |
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Author: Peter Schwartz
Publisher: Currency Doubleday
Pub. in: April, 1996
ISBN: 0385267320
Pages: 288
Measurements: 9.2 x 6.0 x 0.8 inches
Origin of product: USA
Order code: BA00517
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- MSL Picks -
“Scenarios are not predictions.” – The author
Scenario thinking is not science but an "art," which is a disciplined way of foreseeing alternative futures and difficult decisions in this complex and uncertain world. This popular book written by Peter Schwartz, a renowned futurist and business strategist, aims to help readers learn the art and methodology of scenario planning. Scenario is defined as "a tool for ordering one's perceptions about alternative future environments in which one's decisions might be played out (Schwartz, 1996, p.4)." The purpose of scenario building is not a clear picture of tomorrow, but sound decisions about the future. Its method that uses individuals as a filter to study the evolution of the future is able to let individuals, organizations or countries reduce the unpredictability and act with a knowledgeable sense of risk and reward.
Perceiving future in the present, scenario builders write stories that give meaning to multifaceted and complicated events. The storytelling of scenarios is based on both facts and imagination. On the one hand, since scenarios are not fictions, their production process involves rigorous research and skilled information hunting and gathering. For instance, Schwartz encourages scenario researchers to look at "fringes" because new knowledge usually originates there. On the other hand, imagination is the vital ingredient to forecast alternative futures with reasonable gallantry. Writing scenarios, researchers attempt to influence perceptions inside the heads of decision makers and further change their attitudes and/or behaviors toward future.
The key contribution of this book is clearly elaborating the process and method about scenario building. According to Schwartz, the building blocks of scenario creation encompass driving forces (society, technology, economic, politics, environment), predetermined elements (i.e. slow-changing phenomena, inevitable collisions, demographics), and critical uncertainty. There are eight steps to build a scenario: 1) identifying focal issue or decision; 2) listing key forces in the local environment; 3) listing the macro-environment and micro-environment driving forces; 4) ranking key forces and driving trends by importance and uncertainty; 5) deciding the axes to select scenario logics and plots; 6) fleshing out the scenarios; 7) looking at implications; and 8) selecting leading indicators and signposts. Besides, scenario planners have to avoid assigning probabilities to different scenarios, to name scenarios cleverly, and to establish an open-minded and participatory scenario development team.
A good scenario has to be simple, plausible and surprising. The intriguing scenarios that Schwartz uses in this book are not only corporations in western countries, like Royal Dutch/Shell, but also various cases in Asia and Europe. He suggests readers explore two to three alternative scenarios at one time and avoid single prediction. The most common types of scenarios addressed here are: 1) more of the same, but better; 2) worse (decay and depression); and 3) different but better (funda- mental change). In later chapter, he provides three scenarios (new empires, market world, and change without progress) as examples to demonstrate how to write scenarios of forecasting about the world in 2005. Although, in reality, it is impossible to know which scenario will take place, the preparation for three let people rehearse the future and look for hints to recognize which drama is unfolding. Accordingly, individuals, organizations, or countries can avoid unpleasant surprises and know how to react to the uncertain happenings shortly.
In sum, The Art of a Long View is a reader-friendly book that allows novices to quickly grasp the gist of scenario writing. It concretely depicts the scenario art and the methods to mimic its practices. By reading this book, I obtain the "freedom" to create scenarios for alternative futures, to recognize the unfolding events, and hopefully respond to the unpredictable guardedly. It is valuable to learn scenario planning as it can be extensively used for forecasting futures at micro-level (i.e. individuals, family, community) and at macro-level (i.e. organization, society, nation, globe). Although not everyone is gifted in mastering the art of scenario creation, this great book opens a door for those who are willing to absorb its fundamental principals and polish their skills by practicing. Thus, I highly recommend it.
(From quoting Tsui-chuan Lin, USA)
Target readers:
Strategic planners, Corporate planners, Executives, Managers, Entrepreneurs, Management consultants, and MBAs.
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| View all 8 comments |
Sophea Chea (MSL quote), USA
<2007-01-11 00:00>
In The Art of the Long View, Peter Schwartz, one of the world leading futurists introduces the concepts of scenario planning. He argues that scenario thinking is an art not a science, and people in general has an innate ability to build scenarios, and to foresee the future. From the book, the readers can learn how to build their own future scenarios. They are neither predictions nor mere extrapolations of the present trends. They help us to know the shape of unfolding future reality. A good scenario must have surprised elements with power to break the stereotypes.
The general principles of scenario planning are neatly summarized in the appendix, "Steps to Developing Scenarios." They compose of: Step One: identify the focal issue or decision; Step Two: list the key Micro-Factors relevant to that issue or decision; Step Three: list the key Macro-Driving Forces; Step Four: cross-rank Factors and Forces in terms of importance and uncertainty; Step Five: select Scenario Logic; Step Six: flesh out Scenarios; Step Seven: identify Probable Implications; and Step Eight: select Leading Indicators and Signposts. However, the order of the steps may be muddled in some cases.
For me, as a former employee of Shell in Cambodia, it is an eye-opening reading. I wish I had read this book before I started to develop the promotion plan for Shell Cambodia. The great pleasure of adopting a constant futurist's perspective on things is that it forces you to think of different possible ways things may happen and have at hand the answers to the "what if...?" questions either plausible or implausible. Then comes a mindshift that leads to the change in behavior in managing organization, let it be global corporation like Royal Dutch Shell or AT&T and small family businesses. It is an excellent read if you want to liberate your insights from your existing "mental map".
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An American reader (MSL quote), USA
<2007-01-11 00:00>
This book will help you to learn the scenario planning process. At the beginning, the author presents a short but insightful example how scenario playing an important role for starting up a gardening tool company. The author also shares an "information hunting and gathering process" which tell you where to get some helpful data. Various factors influencing the futures are also discussed (including socials, politics, economic, technologies, and environment). In addition, at the end of the book, the author provides a user's guide (eight steps of how to hold a strategic conversation) and eight steps to develop scenarios which I found very useful. The book enables us to use scenario planning as a tool to deal with uncertain futures. Scenarios help us to awake and "reperceive" others possible and impossible alternative futures including both short and long term. The author also believes that a good scenario leads you to ask better questions. The point of scenario-planning is "to help us suspend our disbeliefs in all the futures: to allow us to think that any on of them might place. Then, we can prepare for what we DO NOT think is going to happen." (p.195)
However, one annoying thing in this book is that the author keeps referring to chapters (e.g. look in chapter 7) but physically, there are just no chapters number indicated in the book. There are just short titles in the table of content and at the beginning of each chapter. You have to go back and forth between the TOC and chapters to to see which one is actually being referred. However, I consider this is a minor issue comparing to what you will learn from this book.
You may find this book useful if you are preparing for your strategic plans, making decisions having critical impacts to your firm or your personal life, or even you are just an ordinary reader, this book will open your mind to a new level of critical thinking and imagination about unfolding futures. Highly recommend.
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Christo (MSL quote), Canada
<2007-01-11 00:00>
I belief that I possess a strong and reliable gut-feel or instinct. I also have a good knack for organising and quantifying information to help me in the process of decision making. Together these factors which have helped me through many decisions, from moderately difficult to life changing decisions, such as immigration.
But Peter Schwartz's book takes planning for the future to a much higher level. Subtitled "Planning for the future in an uncertain world", in The Art of the Long View Schwartz illustrates his own successful recipe for practical futurism.
He outlines a "scenario" approach for developing a strategic vision. This approach involves developing 2 - 4 varying scenarios. The approach is based upon a series of steps for developing each scenario, preparing for the likelihood each scenario, and recognising early on which one (or more than one) scenario is actually eventuating, so that appropriate steps can be taken.
Although the proposed scenarios are to be presented in a narrative form (which may make some people uncomfortable), the Long View approach is quite methodical (though it could perhaps have been presented in a more organised fashion). Apart from that, the approach holds much advantage. I expected a full-on business book glorifying globalisation, knowing that Schwartz had been involved with several multi-nationals like the Royal Dutch Shell Oil Company. I was therefore pleasantly surprised with Schwartz's environmental leanings and his inclusion of the ecological impacts of decisions in scenarios.
Taking into account the success rate of teams in which Schwartz has been involved with in the past, the scenario developing strategy definitely seems to me to have much merit. (It would be interesting to see how his predictions for 2005 turns out - in 3 years time). Now if we could only get politicians to read this book and look past their re-election windows. Highly recommended.
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Christine Wright (MSL quote), USA
<2007-01-11 00:00>
The Art of the Long View provides scenario planning information and implication. The author, Peter Schwartz, is a builder and user of scenarios. He draws from his experiences at SRI International, Royal Dutch/Shell, Smith & Hawken, and Global Business Network. He intertwines his observations and lessons with the actual process of scenario planning. He tackles general ideals and concepts with specific examples in an effort to illustrate both the process and mindset needed for effective scenario planning.
The clarity and organization of this book allow the reader to easily grasp the concepts of scenario planning. He highlights the consequential role that scenario planning plays in the business environment. It is a user-friendly book which provides steps, questions to ask, arenas to explore, and various forms of obtaining and interpreting information.
I highly recommend this book to those beginning in the forecasting/ scenario planning field, for it ties the meaningfulness of the process to various fields. It also serves as a reliable resource for professional planners by providing perspectives that may be overlooked in the scenario process.
It begins with the simple sentence; "This book is about freedom." That statement held true throughout the book. In providing steps to developing scenarios, looking at company's situations, looking at the world in 2005, a solid index and endnotes, and even an epilogue to his newborn son, Schwartz provides a framework for exploration of the infinite possibilities of the future. He incorporates creativity and methodology, with the structure of real life stories and the tools to make the connection. |
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